You start with a $1,000,000 bankroll. There are exactly 10 trading days, shown in a randomized order. You may finish early.

You trade from one day’s close to the next day’s close. You are seeing the following day’s front page. Prices and market moves are redacted. Take a long, short, or flat position in the S&P 500 and NVIDIA. The front pages focus on the AI, semiconductor, and technology news that can move both markets.

Use up to 50× combined gross leverage. At 1×, your position equals your current bankroll. There are no transaction costs, financing charges, or rebates. You can Skip any day, trade just one market, or pass both. The result screen shows the exact notional and close-to-close P&L for each asset. If settlement reduces equity to zero, the position is liquidated.

AI news can move markets, but the headline is only one input. Prices also reflect expectations, positioning, valuation, supply constraints, and what investors have already anticipated. This challenge asks whether you can distinguish a compelling story from a trade worth sizing.

Elm Wealth’s 2023 Crystal Ball Challenge (Haghani, White & Bell) tested a version of this idea with 118 finance-trained participants across 15 historical trading days. About 45% lost money and 16% went bust, despite seeing future news. The five veteran macro traders performed best largely by sizing sensibly and passing on roughly a third of days. This edition shifts the thought experiment to the AI economy: each scenario is built around the type of technology, chip, and AI news that can drive both the broad market and NVIDIA.